Germany's Solarworld AG plans to double annual solar wafer output from 250 MW to 500 MW over the next 28 months. Of particular interest is that " . . . 50 per cent of the increased volume had already been sold until 2018 by way of long-term supply contracts with the international solar cell industry."

This would suggest that for those of us worrying about a slowdown in the German solar market our fears may be overdone. It's quite an achievement for any manufacturing firm to have orders in place that far into the future.

On the negative side, that Solarworld can sell that far forward on existing prices (silicon now sometimes touching $200 a kilo, average now $74 v. $15 in 2000), suggests to me that the longed-for around the corner drop in prices to $1-$2 a watt is anything but around the corner. The market - in terms of wafer buyers - is not anticipating greatly falling prices even out until 2018.