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Recently in Fuel Cells Category
In the past, I've always been pretty negative on the prospects for the portable fuel cell market for handheld or even luggable electronic devices like large laptops.The insurmountable problems as I saw it were;
Portable fuel cells, may yet be on the way. And this is why according to the Economist article, in my preferred order of importance; i) America's Department of Transportation is planning a rule change from October 1st to allow passengers and crew to bring fuel-cell-powered electronic devices and one or two fuel cartridges on board in their carry-on baggage. THIS IS AN EARTHQUAKE. Probably the biggest stumbling block of all is about to be removed to the adoption of consumer fuel cells. Where America's Department of Transportation goes, others will meekly follow. Although each passenger would initially be entitled to only 200ml of fuel - a measly 70 watt hours with current technology. ii) Toshiba is going to start making them within a year for laptops and mobile phones. BIG DEAL. When top laptop manufacturers are entering the consumer fuel cell arena with that sort of intent, take notice. And yet, I still think that by and large, micro fuel cells seemed like a poor solution to a not very big problem. As I've discussed before, the only real customers for portable fuel cells right now - are soldiers, often special forces, or the emerging intelligent infantryman, who are increasingly deployed are a long way from a mains socket. Moreover, the emergence of micro laptops with 9" and 7" screens, had extended the run time of lithium ion powered laptops without mains power to nearly 9 hours. Anyway, take a careful look at the AEI global list of fuel cell stocks here and make your own mind up.
No question, Protonex is having a good April. They have just won a $3.6m order from the US Army for its Pulse M250 portable fuel cells, just two weeks after landing a $1.6m deal to develop fuel cells for the US Navy's UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). Fuel Cells have been for almost everyone, a huge disappointment. What is fascinating is how keen the US Military is to deploy them. This is one of the rare and not fully appreciated success stories for fuel cells in recent times and I would venture, in the years to come.
Soldiers - especially infantrymen - are increasingly carrying a lot of electronic kit with them and they need power. These gadgets might include Night Vision Goggles, laptops, radios, mobile phones (for backup), micro and small UAVs, laser target designators, telescopic sights etc. There is however only so much weight an infantryman can carry in the field. Hence the demand for portable fuel cells which have a higher energy density per kilo - around 350 watts - than batteries. The nature of warfare - particularly the low intensity, discretely kinetic kind to win hearts and minds like in Iraq and Afghanistan - is shifting the application of force from the huge weapons platforms of the past to the grunt on the ground. It's much easier and cheaper to launch a portable UAV to look over the hill than request air recon from a jet or helicopter. Certainly, fuel cells have come in for some stick for being so expensive. But the costs are calculated very differently when it comes to saving or even taking lives compared to an extended run time on your ipod.
A slew of interesting letters in today's Times newspaper continuing a debate on biofuels, renewables and hydrogen. Rob Thring, a Professor of Fuel Cell Engineering, argues that;
" if all the cars in Britain could be converted to run on fuel cells using hydrogen from electrolysers using electricity obtained only from wind turbines, we would need only 20,000 wind turbines to do that. Britain could do that in 20 years, and then we would not need petroleum imported from politically unstable areas to fuel our cars." On one level, it's not quite right because 90% of the UK's imported petroleum comes from a fellow liberal democracy, Norway - and since the demise of the Vikings in the 10th Century AD, they haven't been an external cause of instability to anyone. Britain's energy security issues are largely to do with gas, being at the wrong end of the European pipeline, the run-down of North Sea reserves, an inbuilt self-defeating prejudice against new energy infrastructure and a much-strained relationship with Russia. Leaving that aside, it's a fascinating concept to envision wind turbines as a dedicated resource for the hydrogen production - i.e. via electrolysis - for transport fuel. It's not entirely crazy. The UK's island grid would have a hard time (impossible at the current time) load-balancing 20,000 x 3 MW turbines or 60,000 MW. No wonder more research is going on into wind forecasting as this piece in MIT Technology Review makes clear. Depending on who you believe, the furtherest wind could be integrated today in the UK is between 10 and 15% which would equate to about 16,000 to 20,000 MW of installed capacity, compared to about 2,500 MW now and that's assuming you can get it all through planning. Hydrogen production however, which would be tied directly to storage, is not time sensitive and if, and it's a big if, all the UK's vehicles were to shift to hydrogen-fuelled fuel cells, there would be a ready market for it. This hydrogen ambition is a throwback to the scientist, J. B. S. Haldane's 1923 speech, in which he proposed the UK should replace it's exhausted coal fields with a network of hydrogen generating windmills - allegedly the first ever proposal for a hydrogen-based renewable energy economy. For all that the killer fact remains; fuel cells for vehicles are still vastly too expensive for widespread adoption. Show me the showroom where I can go and buy one? Obviously, you can't. The economics of wind-powered hydrogen will start to make sense long before fuel cells do for everyday vehicles. For more information on this debate, see this article I wrote a few years ago, which still holds up pretty well; The Hydrogen Economy; what price and when?
I don't think anyone saw this coming. Because of tax and regulatory incentives, it has always been difficult to find a totally straightforward relationship between the price of oil and alternative energy stocks. Yet no one ever really disputed that, say, if oil prices had remained low - at $10 a barrel as they were in 1999 - there's no way we could have had the boom in alternative energy investment of recent years.
However, over the last few weeks, they have clearly been heading in the opposite direction. Oil is reaching new highs - $111 and the Wilder Hill Clean Energy Index which closed at 206.77 yesterday, is a long way off it's 2007 Boxing Day high of 297.05. Obviously, there are a lot of investors out there who haven't read the script ! What's happening is that commodities like oil and gold, in the face of the credit crunch, have become the new defensive investments. That strikes me as pretty risky, but it seems to be working for those investors, for now. And still there is no let up in sight to the alternative energy boom. Figures out earlier this week from Clean Edge make this clear - in 2007, a 40% increase in revenue growth for solar photovoltaics, wind, biofuels, and fuel cells to $77.3 billion. And the projections for 2017 are;
All projections far into the future have a habit of being wrong of course, but Clean Edge has the only annual and projected figures in town. And let's be honest, most of us would be very happy with half these growth rates. It's also worth noting that in the last few years, alt. e. growth rates have actually been faster than anticipated. If there's anything I'm overtly sceptical about in these projections, it would have to be the fuel cell industry which has been the future for a long time. I still don't see a big breakthrough in sight. It would be interesting to start seeing some figures though on the growth in energy storage technologies, particularly those in the category of hybrid electric vehicles.
If you want to know why Quantum Technologies - or to use it's full name - Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide - rose by a staggering 18.42% yesterday, there's just one answer;
The Fisker Karma - as launched at the Geneva Motor Show yesterday. This comes not long after being awarded $14.5 m by Fisker Automotive to advance and integrate Quantum's proprietary high-performance plug-in-hybrid electric vehicle ("PHEV") architecture -- known as "Q-Drive" -- for the Fisker Karma four-door sport sedan production model. For more details about the Fisker, see their website here. It's fascinating how many niche players are emerging into the nascent alternative energy vehicle market,with production runs in the low 1000s. Meanwhile the big automotive players, Toyota excepted, bang on about fuel cells and run endless and expensive demonstration programmes with a handful of vehicles, proclaiming a breakthrough. Honda's FCX Clarity and BMW's 7 series edition, are both cases in point. Today I'm launching the AEI www.altenergyinvestor.org CEO interview series
and I'm delighted to kick it off with Stephen Voller, CEO and Founder of Voller
Energy Plc.
DL: What is your vision for Voller Energy? DL: What do you think your latest financial results say about the company? SV: We provide solutions for our customers using the best of breed
systems that are available. The majority of players in the fuel cell industry
see us as a customer rather than competitor. Our competition is really conventional
generators rather than other fuel cell companies. We have renewable technology
and are we are already manufacturing fuel cells to order. SV: The Stern review highlighted the need for a collaboration of
technology instead of searching for one sliver bullet. It is likely that a
combination of technologies will allow us to address our future power needs.
It will take time. In two years hopefully the market will have recovered and
people will be more willing to back technologies that address climate change
issues. I would say that that sense of urgency will increase over the next
10 years so that in 20 year time fuel cells will be an integral park of everyday
life. DL: Tell us about your existing products and how you see their
market developing in the years to come? SV: Voller has a 1kW PEM fuel cell system called Emerald that runs
from LPG or propane. The system uses the Ballard 1030 PEM fuel cell stack
and a steam reforming system. The system provides up to 1kW DC power continuously
and up to 5kW AC power via a battery bank and inverter. The Emerald system
continuously monitors the users batteries and automatically recharges as
needed.
SV: Fuel cells are a very attractive source of energy in sailing yachts
because conventionally they use a noisy generator to charge the batteries
on board. Fuel cells charge the batteries without noise, smells or vibration.
I do really enjoy taking a look at all the companies coming through into the AEI universe - I've still got a few more to add, but wanted to share these with you now.
Enova Systems - who produce electric drive systems for fuel cells and hybrid vehicles Fersa Energias Renovables - who invests in other companies that are engaged in the production of renewable energy, such as biomass, solar and wind. They've actually just gone into Panama to invest EUR 700m in 400 MW of wind farms there - of all the places ! Pyeong San Co - who manufacture steel components for wind turbines such as flanges, gear rings and rotor shafts. Here are a few pictures of their flanges. A flange by the way is a plate or ring used to form a rim in this case at the end, middle and beginning of a wind turbine's tower, to which it is fastened. As you can imagine, it has to be very, very strong.
An extremely cautious press release today from ITM Power about an exciting subject - fuel cells for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles or UAVs;
ITM has signed an agreement with Boeing Research & Technology Europe S.L. to prepare a Preliminary Design of an Environmentally Friendly Refuelling Station for Fuel Cell Powered Unmanned Air Vehicles.Jim Heathcote, CEO ITM Power, said: "We are pleased to be working with Boeing and believe this is an interesting agreement for both parties. At the moment, this does not imply a commercial tie-up, does not guarantee any on-going commercial relationship and is a small financial transaction, but it does represent early stage commercial revenues for ITM."The application for UAVs so far has been almost entirely military or for general security and observation purposes. They are still small and it is highly unlikely that the largest UAVs like the Predator, let alone the Global Hawk will use anything but jet fuel for some time to come. Yet it is the micro UAVs - under 5 kilos in weight - and the class just above it have great potential for fuel cells. If you're in any doubt about this, next time you see a remote-controlled plane, notice how noisy the little engine is. Hence the case for a fuel cell. ITM and Boeing will be facing quite a few competitors - not least this record breaking micro fuel cell UAV here which recently completed a record flight of 178 miles and with a fuel cell power density of over 480 watt hours per kilo; listen to how quiet it is !
What a shame !
A couple of weeks after stealing the limelight at the Tokyo Motor Show, with an announcement of the 2008 release of its FCX car, Honda is now putting the FCX into reverse. Far from being a global-wide release, only people living in the Torrance, Santa Monica, and Irvine areas of southern California will be able to buy one, as these are the only places that the Clarity can be easily refuelled and serviced. In other words, very competitive price apart, the FCX looks as if it may join the long list of alternative energy cars with plenty of hype and very little take up - exhibit A of course would be GM's electric car. The other bit that makes me wonder is Honda's Home Energy Station - is this not over-engineering? You'll notice that they have developed this in association with Plug Power , a stock which has been enjoying a good recovery since September. Wouldn't it be much cheaper to set up a home electrolysis kit, powered by (at least in the UK and USA) either overnight Hydro or Nuclear from the mains, fuelled by some distilled water? Anyway, Plug Power have also partnered with another big friend, to commercialize an on-vehicle hydrogen production system for use in a fuel cell-powered lift truck application. This differs from the Home Energy System by taking liquid fuels such " . . . as gasoline, diesel, ethanol or biodiesel and convert them into hydrogen onboard the vehicle where it will be used in a fuel cell power train". Apparently, " . . . this has the potential to be up to 80% more fuel efficient than today's internal combustion engine technologies and reduce CO2 emissions by up to 45%". That really does sound quite promising. And one can't get too down about the availability of the FCX; progress is anything but a straight line heading upwards. There will always be setbacks and disappointments on the road to commercial success.
STOP THE PRESS - the industry's champion of the fuel cell vehicle WANTS OUT !
According to the Detroit Free Press, Ballard is in talks with Daimler and Ford to sell their long-struggling fuel cell unit. A major reason cited is ". . .the lengthy projected timeline to commercialization and high cost of development". It's all such a long way from the breathless optimism of the late 1990s, which culminated in the publication of this book Powering the Future: The Ballard Fuel Cell and the Race to Change the World. Whatever race Ballard thought they were in, it looks like they lost some time ago. It speaks volumes as well that just after Honda announces the world's first industrial production run for a fuel cell vehicle, the FCX, Ballard is throwing in the towel. Meanwhile, Ford, which owns an 11.2% stake in Ballard, is in the third year of a test that has put 30 hydrogen fuel cell-powered Focus cars on the road. And apparently, Daimler, which owns an 18.7% stake in Ballard, reportedly intends to mass produce fuel cell vehicles by 2012 to 2015. Even GM, probably the weakest of the big three, aims to develop a cost-competitive hydrogen fuel cell vehicle by 2010. Some of the early FCX test vehicles were powered by Ballard's Mark902 fuel cell stack, pictured here. The jury's out on the FCX until we see it on the roads. But I suspect that the main culprits for the demise of the fuel cell making it into our driveways since Ballard entered the scene, are the unanticipated success and relatively low cost of hybrids like the Prius, major advances in electrical batteries and above all, big auto firms biting off more than they could chew in trying to completely replace the internal combustion engine - over 100 years in development and still going very strong. Still, in toiling so long on fuel cell development, Ballard can point to having done a lot of the hard work for everyone else. |
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