Wind: February 2007 Archives

Looked at crudely, the world's solar pv industry is mass manufacture in Germany, Japan, and to a lesser extent in China and the USA for module sales and installation in Germany, Japan and the USA. By and large, when you strip out China, most of the production tends to be for the domestic marketplace.

The wind industry I would argue is a lot more globalised.

Take today's news of 2 Big orders for Vestas and Repower Systems in Greece and Japan.

A Danish company selling to Greece and a German company selling to Japan. There's no equivalent kind of interplay going on the international solar scene on that scale.

An exception though might be the extraordinary size and success of Renewable Energy Corp from Norway - the world's biggest alternative energy company by market capitalisation.

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Suzlon Energy, it appears, will now have to try harder to win over Repower System's board for a takeover.

In an 11 page statement, Repower was a lot less than emphatic for Suzlon's superior offer, by choosing to embrace Areva's price as "fair" and saying nothing about that of Suzlon. I don't think this shows Repower in a very positive light.

But part of me understands why . . .

If you're a traditional German big government green (as most employees in German AEI firms are), knowing which company to side with could be a tough call. Do you support a French (+1) nuclear power company (-1) or an Indian (-1) Wind company (+1) to take over your firm, which by the way is very ambitious (-0.5) and doesn't have much time for the Sozialmarktwirtschaft (-1)?

I've said it here before, but the future of manufacturing wind turbines is definitely not in Germany. Suzlon is an ambitious company with a can do, will succeed ethos, backed up by a lot of tangible success. Viewed dispassionately, the wind industry would probably benefit more from a bigger market share for Suzlon. So looking at it rationally, some shareholders of Repower may well decide to take the Suzlon money and run, whatever the board does or doesn't say.

The core strength of many German companies remains in the engineering, client base and intellectual property. Manufacturing meanwhile is more easily replicated by the developing world at lower cost and at higher quailty all the time.

And no question, over the next few years, globalisation will accelerate all of these trends.

That's why opposing the Suzlon takeover for Repower smacks of a futile struggle against the inevitable future.

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